Operational : decision preparation, what is at stake ?
Preparing a decision requires to explore all its possible consequences, keeping in mind all its ins and outs and evaluating its risks and opportunity exposure. Often, corporations require that those tasks meet a consensus from all involved managers in order to guaranty the relevance of decisions and the quality of its implementation. A forecasting modelization tool is required to achieve it. It would enable a quick, easy and collaborative generation of necessary scenarios. However, classical tools, such as spreadsheets or CPM tools :
- Are poorly compliant with these requirements : they are difficult to use, maintain and share.
- Dissuade from willing to anticipating consequences of decision with a forecasting model because of the cost of doing it.
- Push to rely on one sole analyst to build and maintain the forecasting model generating therefore relevance and credibility risks.
- Make difficult the transfert of model managemenr to a tier person.
- Delay decision maturation because of the difficulty of using them.
- Make difficult model sharing between decision makers
- Are useless for an effective decision monitoring (i.e. rolling forecast)
- Make models not reusable for next decision on the same subject
Therefore, improving decision process quality requires new modelization tools. As a matter of facts, decision evaluation costs a lot and creates low value with classical tools. Accordingly, preparation and follow-up tools for decision makers haven't improved functionally for more than 10 years, specially in terms of consensus making, reliability and time to decision .